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Innovation pessimism

 

　　创新悲观论

 

　　Has the ideas machine broken down?

 

　　思维机器出故障了吗?

 

　　The idea that innovation and new technology have stopped driving growth is getting increasing attention. But it is not well founded

 

　　创新和新技术已经不再推动增长的观点正在引发越来越多的注意力，但这种想法是没有根据的。

 

　　Jan 12th 2013 | from the print edition

 

　　BOOM times are back in Silicon Valley. Office parks along Highway 101 are once again adorned with the insignia of hopeful start-ups. Rents are soaring, as is the demand for fancy vacation homes in resort towns like Lake Tahoe, a sign of fortunes being amassed. The Bay Area was the birthplace of the semiconductor industry and the computer and internet companies that have grown up in its wake. Its wizards provided many of the marvels that make the world feel futuristic, from touch-screen phones to the instantaneous searching of great libraries to the power to pilot a drone thousands of miles away. The revival in its business activity since 2010 suggests progress is motoring on.

 

　　硅谷再现繁荣。101公路沿线的办公园区再次贴满了信心十足的创业公司标志，随着对太浩湖(Lake Tahoe)等旅游城镇中度假屋需求的增加，租金在飞涨，财富在累积。湾区是半导体产业以及随之发展起来的计算机和互联网公司的诞生地。从触屏手机到对大型图书馆的即时搜索再到操控数千英里之外的无人机的能力，这里的天才带来了许多奇迹，让世界产生了进入未来的感觉。2011年以来，这里的商业活动在复兴。它告诉人们，进步正在隆隆向前。

 

　　So it may come as a surprise that some in Silicon Valley think the place is stagnant, and that the rate of innovation has been slackening for decades. Peter Thiel, a founder of PayPal, an internet payment company, and the first outside investor in Facebook, a social network, says that innovation in America is “somewhere between dire straits and dead”. Engineers in all sorts of areas share similar feelings of disappointment. And a small but growing group of economists reckon the economic impact of the innovations of today may pale in comparison with those of the past.

 

　　因此，当某些硅谷人士认为这里已经已经停滞不前，而且创新的速率几十年来一直在放缓时，你可能会感到惊讶。在线支付公司PayPal的创始人之一、社交网络脸谱的第一位外部投资人皮特·泰尔(Peter Thiel)认为，在美国，创新正处于“困境与死亡之间的某个地方”。各领域的工程师有着相同的失望情绪。有人认为，相比过去，当代创新的经济影响力可能显得黯然失色。持这种观点的经济学家虽然只是一小部分，但人数正在增加。